The Best of Both Worlds
The economy continues to hum along. What's more, it continues to hum along at a higher pitch than most economists had expected. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services – was revised up to an annual growth rate of 3.9% in the third quarter. The consensus estimate called for GDP to be revised to show 3.2% growth.
Within the GDP data, the trends in private investment were particularly encouraging. Both nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment ratcheted higher. This is good news because more investment today leads to more consumer spending tomorrow.
We're not particularly surprised that economic growth is picking up. After all, the economy has been producing new jobs at the rate of 200,000+ per month for most of 2014.
On the other hand, interest rates are a surprise. When economic growth ratchets higher, so, too, do interest rates. This time around is different, though. Interest rates continue to remain subdued. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note continues to hover around 2.3%. This is the low-end of the range that has prevailed through 2014. At the same time, mortgage rates remain low. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to vibrate around 4%.
We have rising GDP growth coupled with low interest rates. What's more, growth should continue to rise, while rates should remain low. We say that because consumer-price inflation remains very subdued.
So, we have the best of both worlds – strong growth and low lending rates. This unique paradigm suggests housing should get off to a strong start in 2015.
Information provided by Jessica Regan.
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