Real Estate Information Archive

The Big View

The holidays are a nice respite. Things slow down a bit, which allows us to stand back and take in the big picture.

We like what we see, because the big picture includes steady improvement in housing. As we reported last week, housing sales are trending higher. In addition, more sales are being financed with a mortgage. That we are seeing more purchase applications is a sign of more owner-occupied buyers. These buyers have always been the key drivers of the housing market.

Recent trends in home prices point to more buyer interest and more inventory from which to choice.

On the pricing front, S&P/Case-Shiller's closely followed 20-city price index rose 0.3% month over month for September. Year over year, the index is up 4.9%. This is the slowest pace of year-over-year price growth since October 2012. This is actually good news because we are seeing the pace of price appreciation return to historical norms, and historical norms are sustainable norms.

That said, price appreciation is still found in most local markets. Of the 20 markets in Case-Shiller's index, 18 showed price gains for the month.

We expect home prices to continue to appreciate in most markets Case-Shiller follows. We say that because we remain confident in the economic outlook. Fortunately, many consumers apparently share our perspective.

Consumer confidence , overall, remains encouraging. Though down slightly in November, confidence has been on the rise through most of 2014. Better yet, consumers remain upbeat on the outlook for job creation. The latest data from the Conference Board show more people view the job market favorably. This, in turn, points to another favorable employment report next week. (Look for another month of 200,000-or-more new jobs for November.)

The positive data on jobs, housing, and mortgage lending over the past six months gives us even more reason to be thankful this time of year. The good news is that we don't expect this sense of gratitude to abate any time soon.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

When you get a call from [enter judgmental relative here] saying they’ll be at your place in five minutes, what do you do?

In a perfect world, your home is clean and clutter-free, and you have just enough time to set out a snack for your guest. In the real world, though, you need those five minutes to scramble and hide all evidence of real life (aka mess).

If you need to get your place in tip-top shape in record time, we’ve got you covered. Here are five easy tricks to prep for company fast:

1. Stash Dirty Dishes in the Oven

Hey, no judgement here. If the dishwasher’s full, load those dirty dishes into the oven and close the door. Tip: You may not want to offer freshly baked cookies to your guests!

2. Hide Your Laundry in the Shower

If your towels have made their way into a pile on your floor, they’re not going to look any better hung up. If your guests aren’t staying overnight (and won’t need a shower), throw the towels into the shower and close the curtain. Out of sight, out of mind.

3. Put Your Mail in the Junk Drawer

Old coupons and magazines seem to make inconspicuous piles all over the house. If it’s junk, trash it. If you want to hold onto something, like that magazine you haven’t had time to read, combine everything and conceal it in the junk drawer.

4. Switch Out the Couch Blankets and Pillows

If you have some four-pawed loved ones around the house, they tend to leave a trail of fur on your couch.

To give your couch a quick de-fur treatment, try this trick: Keep a spare set of blankets and pillows in the linen closet. If you have some unexpected company, you can switch out the dirty pillows for fresh, fur-free pillows in two seconds flat.

If you’re feeling ambitious, you can throw the blankets and throws right into the laundry room.

5. Close Your Closet Doors

When was the last time a guest asked to peek into your closet? Probably never. Knowing it’s a secret space, shove your laundry, shoes and coats into your closet (and hope they don't mistake it for a door to the bathroom).

Central Penn Business Journal has reported Harrisburg homes sales in October were the highest since 2009. Take a look:

The Harrisburg region posted its best October in five years with 761 home sales last month, according to the Greater Harrisburg Association of Realtors.

That was up 12.2 percent from last year. The median sale price was $156,500, which was down 2.1 percent from October 2013.

Cumberland County led the way with 303 homes sold, a 25.2 percent increase from last year. It’s the first time this decade that the county cracked 300 home sales in October, according to the association.

The median-sale price in Cumberland County was $175,000 in October, a 4.2 percent decrease from last year.

Dauphin County home sales dipped 5 percent to 229 for the month. The median sale price fell by 7.4 percent to $138,000, according to the association.

The Harrisburg area saw an increase across all price points in October. There were 39 homes sold at $400,000 or more, an increase of 21.9 percent from last year, while the $199,999-and-under range posted a 13.8 percent increase with 529 homes sold.

The latter was the most since October 2009, according to the association.

Information courtesy of Harrisburg Realtor Don Roth.

We suspect one day they will, but we doubt that day is imminent.

We've done an about-face on interest rates compared to our outlook at the beginning of the year. Back in January, we thought the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would be approaching 5% by now. That hasn't been the case. Today, it appears 5% lies somewhere on the distant horizon.

We say that because the Federal Reserve has affirmed that it has no intention of raising the federal funds rate (the important rate banks lend short-term to each other). What's more, the Fed continues to plow money from maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities into new issues. Though quantitative easing (QE) officially ended last month, the Fed continues to support the mortgage market. We are still looking at a very accommodating low-rate monetary environment.

At the same time, consumer-price inflation remains muted. This means the Fed has the leeway to hold interest rates low. (The Fed had offered a 6.5% unemployment rate and 2% annual inflation as guideposts before raising rates. The Fed has certainly disregarded the former, with the unemployment rate now below 6%.)

Maybe interest rates will rise when GDP growth hits 6% annually and the unemployment rate hits 4%, as it did 15 year ago. If that drives the rate on the 30-year loan up to 6%, so be it. We'll take that trade-off any day.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Hold on to the remote, this news may shock you: the average cable bill is $75, and that number is expected to rise about 5 percent every year. That’s a pretty steep price increase for your favorite shows! If you can’t imagine cancelling your cable, there are a few tricks of the trade that can help you reduce your bill by up to 20 percent. That can amount to $180 or more saved each year!

1. Do your homework. Unless you live in a one-horse town, there should be more than one cable company operating in your area. Do your research and find out what deals are being offered to you. This isn’t necessarily because you want to switch – you want the information to use as leverage when you call your cable company! You also want to make sure that you know the deals that your company is offering to their new customers. Note: You may need to do some digging online to find this information.

2. Compare and contrast. Your cable bill is like an airline ticket – people pay very different prices for the exact same results! Ask your neighbors, friends and family members what they’re paying. Again, this can be used as leverage when chatting with the cable company. If you can establish that other people are paying less than you, they’ll often match a lower price or add promotions to your account that lower your bill.
    
3. Have a goal. To stay focused, it helps to set a specific price goal before you call the cable company. Make sure it’s realistic – a 15 percent reduction is still a major win.
    
4. Be calm. We’re not saying that you shouldn’t be a little irked that you pay twice as much as your friend for the same service – just don’t show the cable company that. Make sure you’re in a calm state of mind before you call the cable company. In this situation, flattery is the name of the game. You want the customer service representative to know that you love their service – you just can’t afford to pay such a high price every month.
    
5. Provide a little background. You wouldn’t ask out a date without flirting a little first, would you? (Don’t answer that.) Before you jump right to the big ask, give the customer service representative a little background. Say you’re going through your yearly budget and realized that you just can’t afford their service, or even play the blame game and say your spouse wants a lower bill. If they realize why you’re asking, they’ll be more willing to work with you to solve the problem.
    
6. Bring out the big guns. Once you’ve established what you need and schmoozed a little, it’s time to mention a competitor. Make it clear (without being overtly hostile) that you’re thinking about cancelling unless they can lower the bill. Don’t actually say you will cancel, or the call may end with you losing access to your favorite shows. Instead, just say you might be forced to quit since you’ve found a better option.
    
7. Try again. If your first call isn’t fruitful, it may just be that the specific agent you talked to wouldn’t play ball. Cable companies have a lot of employees. If you’re not getting anywhere, ask to talk to their loyalty department – they’ll have access to deals that the customer service department doesn’t. If you still don’t get a lower bill, try again on a different night of the week. Think of each call as a first date – you’ll eventually get lucky and meet the perfect customer service rep for you!

This past week, the Federal Reserve announced it would cease using new money to purchase longer-term Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This has lead many market watchers to believe interest rates will start to rise. After all, reduced Fed demand will lead to higher yields.

It's not quite that simple. For one, the Fed will continue to reinvest the proceeds of maturing notes, bonds, and MBS into new notes, bonds, and MBS. The Fed has also said that it won't allow its portfolio of these holdings, which exceeds $4 trillion, to shrink until it starts raising short-term rates. This isn't expected to occur until the second-half of 2015 at the earliest.

In addition, banks are picking up the slack in demand. Recent rules approved by the Fed, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. leave banks about $100 billion short of the $2.5 trillion in easy-to-sell assets that they need to meet new liquidity standards. Treasury securities and MBS help banks meet the standards.

At the same time, supply of Treasury securities is expected to drop. A falling fiscal deficit will result in less Treasury-debt issuance going forward. According to the CBO , the deficit for 2014 – for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 – was $486 billion, $194 billion less than the $680 billion deficit recorded in 2013. That’s the lowest deficit since 2007.

In short, we don't expect a meaningful increase in mortgage rates for some time, possibly not until the second quarter of 2015.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Better Pricing Driving More Sales

We've frequently mentioned that a slowdown in home-price appreciation would help drive sales volume. So far, our thesis has proven correct.

New home sales surged to 467,000 units on an annualized rate in September. This was the best monthly display since July 2008.

Discounting by home builders was a key factor in driving volume. The median price of a new home dropped 9.7% to $259,000 in September. Before the decline, the year-over-year median price was trending higher. But now the median new-home price is actually 4% lower than it was this time last year.

New-home prices should stabilize going forward. Supply remains muted, with 207,000 new homes on the market. This means that supply relative to sales is at a reasonable 5.3 months.

It appears existing-home sales might start trending higher with new-home sales. The pending home sales index was up 0.3% in September. This isn't a monumental increase, but it does point to another monthly gain in existing-home sales for October. The year-over-year trend in the index is another subtle plus. It had spent most of 2014 in the red but is now back in the black with a 1.0% gain.

As for home prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows they were down in 12 of the 20 cities the index follows. In aggregate, this translates to a 0.1% index decline. This marks the fourth-consecutive monthly decline, which drives the year-over-year gain down to 5.6% compared to 6.7% in July. The downward trend will likely persist: Zillow projects the year-over-year gain will drop to 4.7% when Case-Shiller reports September numbers.

Continued improvement in gross domestic product (GDP ) growth should keep home sales moving forward through the end of the year. GDP growth decelerated in the third quarter, falling to 3.5% on an annualized rate, compared to the second quarter's 4.6% annualized rate. That said, 3.5% is respectable, and still beat the consensus estimate for 3.1% annualized growth. What's more, GDP growth at the current level should keep monthly job growth above the coveted 200,000 level.

Now, we just want to see an uptick in purchase-mortgage activity. Last week's numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association weren't terribly encouraging. Purchase volume was down 5.0% for the October 24 week despite the fact rates remain low: sub-4% is still regularly quoted on the 30-year fixed-rate loan. What's more, rates are showing little inclination to move materially higher.

The question is, will mortgage rates remain sedated now that the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative easing?

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

It won’t be long now! The neighborhood kids are planning their costumes as you read this. Masks, robes and mummy tape. Maybe even a Justin Bieber hairdo!

Can your house handle the barrage of children begging you for treats? If you’re not sure, then you’re not ready. It’s time to gear up!

1. Decorate your door. This is the first step in any trick-or-treating preparation session. Set up some Halloween decorations on your front door or in your yard, and don’t hold back! The spookier the better. Don’t forget a few jack-o-lanterns, either. If you want to break the mold a bit, try a no-carve pumpkin this year. Note: If you do decide to go with a lit pumpkin, make sure it’s placed well away from areas that trick-or-treaters will be walking through.
    
2. Optimize your lighting. Since your front yard will be getting more foot traffic than usual on Halloween, it’s important to make sure your guests can see so they don’t take a tumble. If you don’t have any exterior lights over your front door, consider adding a few lanterns along your walkway so you don’t have children falling down in your yard.
    
3. Hide your valuables. This isn’t about robbery so much as accidental damage. If you have any delicate ornaments, flowerpots or statues around your front door, relocate them until November. That way, they can’t be damaged if that cute little mummy trips on his or her costume.
    
4. Buy plenty of candy. Nothing squashes a child’s hopes and dreams like knocking on a door that doesn’t have any candy left. To ensure the survival of youthful happiness in your neighborhood – buy plenty of candy. If you live in one of these extremely popular trick-or-treating neighborhoods, consider going to a wholesale store like Costco or BJ’s, just to be safe.
    
5. Wear a costume. It’s not as bad as running out of candy, but answering the door on Halloween wearing a sweater and jeans is kind of a buzz-kill for the kids. Even if you put it together in five minutes, a costume is always a good idea!

The drop in mortgage rates has fueled a surge in refinance activity. Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinances were up 11% week over week. When the MBA reports on this week's activity (next week), we expect to see continued strong demand.

It's been a different story for purchase activity. Last week, the MBA's purchase index was down 1%. Year over year, the purchase index is down 4%. This is not good news, especially when you consider that cash sales are dropping as a percentage of overall sales, and will likely continue to do so.

Now, we get the report that home builder sentiment is dropping too. The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) sentiment index dropped to 54 in October, which is a considerable decline from the 59 posted in September. Home builders, like a lot of other people, are feeling less sure of themselves these days. We hope the drop is a one-off reading, but time will tell.

Falling interest rates, as we note above, are an indicator of falling confidence and rising risk aversion. This is why we don't get terribly excited when rates continually fall. To be sure, falling rates are good for refinance business, but for the overall health of housing and mortgage lending, we need to see a pick up in purchase activity. For that to occur, we need more confidence and less risk aversion. This, we believe, will be reflected in rising interest rates.

So if we cheer-lead on occasion for rising rates, it's not because we favor rising financing costs, it's because we favor more business and consumer confidence and more economic growth.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.