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Housing's Comparative Advantage

by Don Roth

Ultra-low mortgage rates are making homes more affordable. At the same time, the lending market is becoming more accommodating. Insurance premiums are being reduced on FHA loans. This means even cheaper financing will be available to a wider swath of potential home buyers.

Home-price appreciation is also moderating, and homes are appreciating at a more reasonable rate. Rent-price increases, on the other hand, are making it more expensive for people to rent. Data from Zillow show that rents have grown at twice the pace of income over the past 14 years. Zillow expects rents to outpace home-price appreciation over the next year.

This means homeownership will become even more appealing in 2015.

We've always believed most people prefer to own than rent. There is something about owning a home than can't be replicated by renting. Peace of mind is found in being able to paint the walls and drive a nail wherever you want without worrying about a security deposit. Pride of ownership really does have value.

But more than anything, ownership gets people off the price escalator. Rent never ceases to rise. When a home is bought and financed with a fixed-rate loan, what was paid last year will be paid this year, and years after that (property taxes and insurance aside).

When low lending rates are combined with the comparative advantages of ownership, there is no reason to not like the outlook for housing in 2015.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap – Jan 12 2015

by Don Roth

Is Sub-4% the New Norm?

Nearly everyone believes the Federal Reserve will raise the influential federal funds rates this year. The fed funds rate has been held near zero for the past five years. This rate matters because it influences other lending rates.

With so much chatter about the Fed raising interest rates this year, you would think rates would begin to rise in anticipation of the event. That's hardly been the case. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has steady declined over the past year, and was recently quoted below 2%.

As the 10-year note goes, so frequently goes the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (and other fixed-rate term loans). Sub-4% on the 30-year loan has been the norm in recent months. Bankrate.com's national survey, which tends to be higher than many local quotes, shows the 30-year loan averaged 3.85% this past week. That's the lowest it has been in 20 months.

Though the Fed might want to see rates rise that simply hasn't been the case, at least for longer-term loans. This is extraordinary when you consider the U.S. economy has produced new jobs at a monthly rate of 200,000+ through 2014.

Consumer-price inflation just might keep all rates low through 2015. Falling oil prices have kept inflation risk at bay. Consumer-price inflation remains below 2% in the United States, and will likely remain below 2% through the first half of 2015.

Meanwhile in Europe, deflation, not inflation, is the overarching worry.

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently admitted that inflation will likely spend a large part of 2015 in negative territory. Eurozone inflation, 2% at the beginning of 2013, has drift lower since. Consumer-price inflation was below 1% for all of 2014.

Today, you can find European bonds that actually pay a negative rate of interest. The two-year German bond is quoted at a negative 0.12%. The price on the five-year German bond has risen to drive the yield down to zero.

If the choice is between a negative interest rate, like in Germany, or a nominally positive rate, like in the United States, many investors will choose the latter. This means more foreign money will likely flow into U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. This flow of money, in turn, will raise prices on U.S. notes and bonds and lower their yield.

We do offer a caveat on our outlook: Interest rates are akin to predicting the flight path of a butterfly. It's impossible to know where it is going at all times. But given recent events, we would not be surprised to see mortgage rates flutter at today's lows through the first quarter of 2015.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Central PA Real Estate Report for 2014

by Don Roth

The number of homes sold in Central PA and the greater Harrisburg area increased slightly (3%) over the sales results for 2013 continuing a positive trend we have experiencing over the past few years. But the increase is growthsmaller than the approximately 10% increase in sales in 2013 over 2012. But there is also some additional positive news in that the average sales price increased to $187,076 in 2014 and the days on market before a home is under contract now stands below 90 days.

What does 2015 look like? I think the trend will continue to look positive with respect to the number of sales and the average sales price. Although I do not expect these numbers to go off the charts, I am anticipating a steady rise similar to the years prior to the financial crisis. Why?  Some of the increase, I believe, will come from a decision that the federal government (FHFA) made recently to decrease the insurance premium on FHA mortgages that would save a borrower approximately $75 per month on a $180,000 mortgage. And since approximately 15% of all sales in 2013 and 2014 were financed by this type of financing this should provide some stimulus to the sales market. And although higher mortgage interest rates have been called for by the experts for the past year, the current interest rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is between 3.75 – 4.00%, which does positively impact affordability. I do though anticipate mortgage rates to increase, by how much I do not know but it will impact some potential buyers.

All that said you can see a positive trend has emerged and I anticipate it to continue in 2015. If I can be on any assistance or provide any information please contact me at your convenience.

Don Roth

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700, complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The information compiled by me came from our local Multiple List which comprises primarily Cumberland, Dauphin and Perry counties with some additional info from Lebanon, Lancaster and York Counties.

De-Stress Your Home

by Don Roth

WHY DO THIS? 

Modern life is high-tech, fast-paced and stressful. It’s a jungle out there! Turning your home into a sanctuary from the always on, always-connected world we live in is not only good for your mind, it’s good for your health! Make your home a relaxation zone with these design fixes.

De-Stress Your Home

HOW TO…
 
  1. Let in light. Sunlight is nature’s stress-buster, because it positively impacts both physical and mental health. Lift the blinds and lift your mood. If you’re lacking in the natural light department, mirrors can be used to brighten up a room, instead.

  2. Dim down at night. While light boosts energy levels, darkness can soothe the soul, so balancing the two is key. In the evening, keep certain spaces (such as your bedroom) low-key by reducing overhead lighting and using a candle or two. The low light will help transition your system to a relaxed state and prepare you for sleep.

  3. Frame your loved ones. Remember that fun vacation with those amazing people? You should. Every day. Reliving happy memories breeds an upbeat outlook and framed photos will do the trick. Surround yourself with snapshots of friends, family, places and pets for a daily jolt of positivity.

  4. Simplify. Clutter is the enemy of calm. Pick one especially disorderly space in your home (the kitchencloset or living room are three good options) and spend ten minutes sorting your clutter into three piles: keep, discard and relocate. Eliminate the “discard” pile and move the “relocate” items to their proper places in the house.

  5. Add nature. Plants are a great way to make any room feel tranquil and peaceful. Whether you make a statement with a single staghorn fern or scatter jars of wildflowers throughout your home, you can’t go wrong. In addition to the high-traffic display spots, we recommend placing plants in obscure places (like the kitchen, home office or your bathrooms) to keep the natural vibe alive through and through.

  6. Power down. The electronics in our lives can drain more than electricity. Surrounding ourselves with screens – computers, TVs, tablets – can take a toll on our sleep habits, too. Hide them if you can, at least an hour or so before bed. The blue light emitted from most electronics actually affects your REM cycle, so you don’t sleep as well. And nothing knocks your stress levels up a notch like a poor night’s sleep!​​

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

The Stock Market and Housing

by Don Roth

Nothing exists in a vacuum. All markets are interconnected to some degree.

Last week, we discussed stocks and housing. Which is the preferable asset? The reality is that the two are not mutually exclusive. It's not an “either/or” scenario. What's more, one can influence the other, and frequently does. Stock market losses can lead to decreased housing demand, or to increased housing demand. Housing can have the same impact on stock prices.

We saw falling home prices lead to falling stock prices in 2008. When housing values plummeted, so did stock prices. Through late 2007 to early 2009, the S&P 500 stock market index lost more than half its value. Interestingly, though, when stock values sank after the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000, home prices, on average, rose.

Stocks have been on a strong run since early 2009. The S&P 500 has nearly tripled in price. This has no doubt produced a “wealth effect” that has helped the housing recovery. When people feel wealthier – as they do when they see the value of their investments rise – they are more willing to spend. This includes spending on housing.

That said, the stock market is on a six-year bull run. That's long as bull runs are concerned. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see a retreat in stock prices in 2015.

If stock prices retreat, could this lead to falling home prices? Or could it lead to rising home prices?

If stock prices were to retreat, we think the latter scenario – continued rising housing prices – is more likely. We say that because homes are much more reasonably priced today compared to 10 years ago. That said, it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on the stock and housing markets in 2015.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - January 5 2015

by Don Roth

Easing Into 2015

We like where home price are headed. That is, they are easing. They have assumed a more steady and sustainable rate of growth.

Recent price data from Black Knight supports our contention. Black Knight follows completed transactions in more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. For October, prices were up 0.1%, on average. Year over year, they were up 4.5%. This is much closer to historical growth rates.

Mortgage lending rates are also easing into 2015. The 30-year fixed-rate loan is still regularly quoted below 4%, which is no surprise. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hovers around 2.2%. This is nearly 100 basis points less than where it was a year ago. The 10-year note is showing no inclination to move higher. Mortgage rates are also showing no inclination to move higher.

Unfortunately, homes sales are easing into 2015 at too languid a pace.

In November, existing homes sales sank 6.1% to 4.93 million units at an annualized rate. The number of units sold on a monthly basis has yet to pick up pace. We are still at the same annualized rate we were at this time last year.

As for new home sales, they too, are easing into 2015. November new home sales were down 1.6% in November, to an annualized rate of 428,000 units. As with existing home sales, the sales pace is on par with where we were a year ago. 

Home sales had been showing some life going into the fourth quarter, but the readings on November have been a disappointment. We were expecting better.

That said, we still like the longer-term outlook on both housing and mortgage financing. Yes, sales are flat, but the continued gains in economic growth and employment will prove salutary. (This is a theme we've pounded on frequently over the past six months.) Gears will eventually mesh and sales will move higher.

Financing available to a wider swath of the population will help. Lending – mortgage and consumer – is heading in the right direction. Lenders are more willing to make loans, and consumers are more willing to take them. That's a sign of growing confidence in the economy.

We were one of the few voices promoting housing and mortgage lending in the dire days of 2009. We were proven correct: Housing indeed recovered.

These aren't dire days by any stretch of the imagination, though sometimes they are frustrating days. The good news is that housing is as poised as it has been in years to lead the economy forward. The funk will be broken.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Resolution Time: Go Green in 2015!

by Don Roth

If your New Year’s resolution has been “get fit” for the last five years, it may be time to pass on the gym membership in 2014 and spend your energy going green, instead! You don’t have to grow dreadlocks or start a granola-only hippie diet to reap the benefits of a green lifestyle. Here are a five easy ways to be eco-friendly in 2015:

Make Your Own Non-Toxic Dish Soap
Store-bought dish soaps are expensive and many of them contain toxic chemicals like ammonia. In fact, the leading cause of poisonings in the home for children under the age of six is liquid dish soap. Protect your family and your wallet by home brewing your suds!

Make All-Natural Air Fresheners
If you’re using store-bought aerosol fresheners to cover up nasty smells, you may also be spreading two toxic chemicals around your house: benzene and formaldehyde.  Both of these chemicals are harmful to humans and animals, and can cause problems such as eye irritation, respiratory trouble and – at higher exposure levels – more serious conditions like cancer. Fortunately, all you need are a few kitchen staples to replace those aerosol cans.

Reduce Waste
Waste means more than the bag of trash sitting by the back door. By paying attention to water and energy usage, you’ll do a solid for the environment and for your wallet.

Reuse and Recycle
You probably know that recycling is an easy way to go green, but did you know that it can help you save some money, too? These five tricks will help you conserve cash and help the environment along the way, so it’s a win/win. 

Switch To CFLs
They’re bright, stylish and will save you money! Yes, CFLs have a slightly higher purchase price, but they only use one-fifth of the power and last up to ten times longer than your current light bulbs. Plus, these new bulbs give you design options that don’t exist with standard light bulbs.

Information provided by BrightNest.com.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Actually, Things Aren't All That Loose

by Don Roth

Actually, Things Aren't All That Loose

Last week, we mentioned that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introduced a new program to buy mortgage loans with down payments as low as 3%. For borrowers to qualify for 3% down they'd need a FICO score of at least 620. They'd also have to prove their income, assets and job status, and purchase private mortgage insurance. Of course, this is all within the norm.

Fannie and Freddie's new mortgage program inspired a spurt of head shaking and finger wagging from media outlets : Could low down payments lead to another housing boom and bust? Could another mortgage bubble form?

We don't see booms and busts or bubbles in our future. For one, housing sales and purchase mortgage financing is still muted from a historical perspective. Lending standards are still high, and you can argue still too high. (Fed Chair Yellen stated that she was surprised that the housing recovery has not been more robust and indicated that it is because of tight credit markets.) This is reflected in the dearth of first-time home buyers. The NAR reports that first-time home buyers account for just 33% of all home purchases. That's the lowest level in 27 years.

Given the strength in employment and the economy, there is no reason for lenders not to reach out on the risk curve. There is also no reason for regulators to dissuade lenders from not extending credit to riskier buyers – if intelligently done.

Most of us vividly remember what occurred in 2008 and 2009, so everyone is sensitive to market disconnects. Are lending standards too loose? Not by a long shot. The benefits of easing credit standards far outweigh the risk of another bubble at this point in the recovery.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Harrisburg PA Mortgage Market Recap - Dec 29 2014

by Don Roth

Sentiment Up, Starts Flat, Rates Fall

Home builders remain upbeat. The National Association of Home Builders Sentiment Index posted at 57 for December. This is a point lower than the 58 reading posted in November, but is still the sixth-consecutive reading above 50. (A posting above 50 indicates more optimism and less pessimism.)

Home builders appear to be viewing the market farther afield. For the here and now, the data are not particularly encouraging. Housing starts posted at 1.028 million units on an annualized rate for November. This is in line with expectations, but the pace of starts is off 7% compared to this time last year.

Strength in starts was found in the volatile multi-family component, which was up 6.7%. Unfortunately, the more-important single-family component was down 5.4%. Looking to the future, housing permits were down 5.2%.

In recent months, housing numbers have oscillated perceptibly. October was relatively good but November was not. When we take a longer-term perspective – over the past six months – we see housing growth that has been flat to moderately positive.

Given where mortgage rates have trended lately, we could see housing activity begin to trend more positively. Rates have been dropping for the past six weeks, and are now down to levels last seen 18 months. Bankrate's survey, which tends to lean toward the high side, showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94% over the past week. Freddie Mac's survey showed the 30-year loan averaged 3.8%.

Moreover, it doesn't appear rates will be heading for higher ground in the near future. In the minutes from the latest meeting of Federal Reserve governors, Chair Janet Yellen indicated that language switch to "patience" from "considerable time" on the federal funds rates does not indicate a change in Fed policy.

In other words, the Fed has no intentions to raise interest rates in the near future. Many market watchers don't think anything will change on the rate front until the second half of 2015. Inflation remains low, and is unlikely to move higher given the drop in energy prices. And despite a strengthening economy, there are still enough lagging sectors to keep rates low.

Our New Year's predictions on home prices, the economy, and job growth have turned out as we expected. As for mortgage rates, we were off base. This time last year we were expecting 5% on the 30-year loan by this time. As things stand now, we see nothing to move rates higher any time soon.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Still Plenty of Room to Run

by Don Roth

2014 has seen significant improvement in housing. We think there is plenty of room for housing to move higher when the market is viewed from a historical perspective.

Private real estate investment, for one, is still at levels that existed a decade ago. The same is true of household real estate value as a percent of GDP and mortgage debt as percent of GDP. The market is running sub-optimally. That means there is still plenty of upside to capture.

It's also worth remembering that we are a growing country. There are more people than a decade ago. Our population increases year over year. Millenials in particular are a fertile source of pent-up housing demand. Contrary to many accounts , young people still want to buy a home. With the job outlook continually improving, many more of them will.

What's more, a rising tide will lift all ships. We expect to see more activity in all segments of the market. We expect not only to see more people enter the market, but we expect to see more buying and selling within the different price segments.

In short, we look forward to 2015, and we would not be surprised if it turns out to be one of the best years for sales and lending that we've seen in over a decade.

Information provided by Jessica Regan.

Search all Harrisburg PA homes for sale.

When you are buying or selling property in today's Harrisburg PA real estate market, it's important to have confidence in your real estate professional. Don’s commitment as your Harrisburg PA REALTOR® is to provide you with the specialized real estate service you deserve.

When you are an informed buyer or seller, you'll make the best decisions for the most important purchase or sale in your lifetime. That's why Don’s goal is to keep you informed on trends in Harrisburg PA real estate. With property values continuing to rise, real estate is a sound investment for now and for the future.

As a local area expert with knowledge of Harrisburg PA area communities, Don’s objective is to work diligently to assist you in meeting your real estate goals.

If you are considering buying or selling a home or would just like to have additional information about real estate in your area, please don't hesitate to call me at (717) 657-8700complete my online form, or e-mail me at don@donroth.com.

Displaying blog entries 211-220 of 694

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